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周波:美国将军们绞尽脑汁,猜测中国是否会使用武力?
最后更新: 2025-01-25 08:44:46以下为采访原文:
Interviewer: Thank you so much, Zhou Bo, for joining me today. For those who may not know you, you are currently a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. Previously, you served as a Senior Colonel in the People’s Liberation Army. We have a lot of questions to get to, especially for Americans and Western audiences, there’s a lot of misunderstanding, especially on the geopolitical and military fronts when it comes to U.S.-China relations and China's role in the world.
Let’s start with the South China Sea and the Philippines. Recently, we’ve seen many stories in the West about China and the Philippines getting into skirmishes, which are being described confrontations. I want to ask you about your understanding of these growing tensions that the US and the West are talking about. What is China's position on the South China Sea? What is actually going on between China and the Philippines?
Zhou Bo: Thank you. Actually, you’ve asked several good questions, and it's not easy to give a short answer, but I’ll try my best.
First, when there’s a rivalry between a giant like China and a smaller country like the Philippines, people instinctively feel more sympathy for the smaller one. This is human nature—similar to how people love baby cucumbers or baby tomatoes, they just look more adorable and eatable. In this case, I understand how people might feel.
But let me provide a simple fact: very few people seem to know that it is actually the Filipinos who have killed Chinese fishermen on three occasions—in 2000, 2006, and 2013, against innocent Chinese fishermen from both Mainland China and Taiwan, which is part of China. If people understood this and also realized that China has never used force against the Philippines, their perception might change.
For example, in 1999, the Filipino government deliberately stranded a rusted World War II-era warship on the Ren Ai Jiao(Second Thomas Shoal). China protested, the Filipino government made promises but claimed so-called “technical difficulties”, and so they didn’t tow it away. Then, this became an issue. But think about this: given the overwhelming military strength of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), if we decided to do something, couldn’t we easily resolve this issue? The simple question is, how could those Filipino marine corp soldiers have remained there for 25 years if the Chinese government and the PLA are not self-restrained.
Yes, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have used water cannons. This might look dramatic on TV, especially when the other party is a smaller country. However, I would argue that this is precisely because we do not want to use force, so this is a kind of deterrence, aimed at preventing the Filipino Coast Guard from delivering building materials to fortify the stranded ship to a permanent base.
Interviewer: That’s a very different perspective than what we often see in Western media. In the West, we often hear about China's "aggressive ambitions" in the South China Sea, and blame for the disputes is frequently placed solely on China because China is the bigger country. What is the truth about this, because these disputes are very misunderstood; I don’t think the ordinary person in the US would know about it. What would you say?
Zhou Bo: Western media often claims that China wants to turn the South China Sea into a “Chinese lake,” but this is not true. According to the Chinese government, we believe all the islands and rocks in the South China Sea are Chinese territory. With these territories, China naturally could claim rights to territorial seas, contiguous zones and exclusive economic zones under international law. However, we do not have a claim over the entire South China Sea. That is China’s position.
Additionally, terms like “aggressive” and “coercive” are frequently used to describe China’s actions, but there is no evidence of China using—or even threatening to use—force in the South China Sea. In fact, China and ASEAN countries are negotiating a “Code of Conduct in the South China Sea”. While this process has been slower than it should be, the question is, who is to be blamed? I would say nobody is to be blamed. People always neglect a fact: disputes exist among ASEAN claimants themselves. I think it’s somewhat unfair that whenever we talk about South China Sea, it immediately becomes an issue between China and other claimants; that’s not true.
Interviewer: You mentioned water cannons used by the Chinese Coast Guard, which you've emphasized in previous interviews as an indication that China seeks to prevent larger conflicts rather than escalate them. However, there have also been incidents where Filipino and Chinese vessels rammed into each other. Could you talk about this? Western media, such as CNN, often portrays these incidents as evidence of China's escalation. What do you know about these incidents?
Zhou Bo: When two ships get close to each other, there’s always a risk of collision. If one ship tries to stop another from moving somewhere, a collision can happen too. I won’t point fingers at which side caused such incidents, because both sides are trying to prevent the other from achieving specific objectives.
However, stepping back, my general assessment is that there won’t be a serious conflict in the South China Sea. This is partly because China’s military strength is overwhelming, allowing us to keep the situation under control. Additionally, we’ve pledged not to use or threaten to use force in the South China Sea, and other claimants have made similar commitments.
Therefore, my best hope is that Mother Nature itself will eventually resolve some of these issues, because Mother Nature has its own strength, called “force majeure”. Consider the ship itself: as it becomes more and more rusted, and China decides not to use force, eventually, the vessel will disintegrate because of Mother Nature, this outcome might serve everyone’s interests.
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本文仅代表作者个人观点。
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