Trump the Tariff Terrorist

The week began with chaos. President Donald Trump shocked global markets by announcing a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of “very hostile” actions after China restricted exports of rare-earth materials vital to U.S. industry.

The move looked like revenge — a reflexive strike from a president long obsessed with tariffs. Markets instantly revolted. The Dow Jones plunged, wiping nearly $2 trillion from U.S. value in a day. Investors feared the return of a full-scale trade war.

Within 24 hours, Trump softened his tone. On Truth Social, he wrote:

“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! China doesn’t want Depression, and neither do I.”

It was a sharp contrast to his earlier rhetoric — a performance of strength giving way to self-inflicted uncertainty.

While Washington’s language grew volatile, Beijing stayed remarkably calm. The Ministry of Commerce issued a brief statement through Xinhua, warning that “wilful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China,” and repeating that China “does not want a trade war, but is not afraid of one.”

After that, Beijing said little. No fiery speeches, no dramatic retaliations. Even online, public sentiment settled quickly after an initial burst of nationalist emotion. The tone across Chinese media could be summed up by an old saying —

“以不变应万变” — Stay steady to navigate all changes.

That phrase captures China’s current mindset with precision: restraint, patience, and confidence that volatility will pass.

Trump’s new tariff campaign is the continuation of a story years in the making. When he returned to the White House in 2025, markets already knew what to expect: tariffs. From his first hours back in office, Trump revived the same economic nationalism that defined his earlier term — only this time, the scale was larger and the targets broader.

After the 2020 “Phase One” deal, the U.S.–China trade war appeared to cool. Tariffs remained, but escalation stopped. Under President Joe Biden, the tone softened even as rivalry deepened. Biden kept most of Trump’s tariffs while shifting toward industrial policy and alliances — the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and closer coordination with Europe and Japan.

China, in turn, doubled down on self-reliance — expanding semiconductor programs, electric-vehicle manufacturing, and renewable-energy supply chains. From the Chinese perspective, it was Trump himself who forced this transformation during his first term, when his initial tariffs in 2018 exposed how vulnerable global supply chains were to U.S. pressure. Since then, China has spent nearly a decade building a comprehensive strategy of self-sufficiency — from chips and batteries to agriculture and shipping — ensuring that in 2025 it is far better prepared for trade wars than it was before. Beijing took that shock as a lesson: build domestic strength so that future tariffs could no longer shake the economy. That’s why Chinese netizens jokingly call him “Chuan Jianguo” (川建国) — literally, “Trump, the Nation Builder.”

The first major showdown came in April 2025, when Trump launched what he called a “reciprocal tariff” war against the world. Within days, China and the United States were locked in an aggressive tit-for-tat that sent tariff levels soaring to record highs and knocked U.S. stocks into a tailspin. While many countries bowed to U.S. pressure, China’s firm stance drew applause across the Global South — from Brazil to India — and even inspired a viral cartoon titled “We Will Not Kneel.” After tense negotiations from Geneva to London and Stockholm, both sides called for calm. For a brief moment, markets believed a truce had arrived. But the silence that followed was only a countdown.

The calm that followed April’s “reciprocal tariff” clash did not last long. By late August, Washington had expanded its export controls on Chinese technology and shipping firms, accusing them of helping to evade semiconductor restrictions and support dual-use logistics networks. Soon after, Trump’s advisers floated the idea of banning Chinese civilian aircraft from U.S. airspace, a proposal the president publicly endorsed. In Beijing, those moves were seen as deliberate provocations — and the response was subtle but strategic.

By mid-September, China quietly halted new purchases of American soybeans, describing the suspension as a “market adjustment.” It was, in effect, the first measured act of retaliation. Futures fell sharply, storage facilities in the Midwest began to fill, and Washington immediately recognized the political signal. By targeting agriculture — a cornerstone of Trump’s electoral base — Beijing demonstrated that it could respond with precision, not escalation.

Within weeks, Chinese port authorities also began reviewing access for U.S.-affiliated shipping companies, delaying several clearances on “technical grounds.” Meanwhile, according to the Section 301 investigation released by the U.S. Trade Representative on April 17, Washington announced that from October 14 it would impose an additional port-service fee on vessels owned or operated by Chinese companies, Chinese-flagged ships, and vessels built in China, citing unfair competition in maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding.

From soybeans to shipping to skies, each new friction deepened mistrust and tested the fragile calm — setting the stage for October’s tariff shock.

The countdown reached its climax on October 10 2025, when Trump announced a sweeping 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, set to take effect by November 1. The new measures covered not only rare earths and strategic minerals but also automobiles, electronics, green-technology components, and medical equipment — virtually the full range of bilateral trade.

Trump framed it as a “defensive move” against China’s “economic aggression,” accusing Beijing of weaponizing export controls on rare-earth materials critical to U.S. defense and industry.

Beijing’s message was measured but firm. Through Xinhua, the Ministry of Commerce declared that “wilful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China,” adding that if the U.S. insisted on “going the wrong way,” China would “take resolute measures to protect its legitimate interests.”

Markets tumbled once again. In Europe, major indices slipped nearly one percent, while Bitcoin also plunged before rebounding after Beijing chose not to retaliate. For now, China has opted for composure over confrontation — confident that, with time, economic gravity will pull events back in its favour.

Donald Trump’s second term has been defined by one consistent instinct — escalation. He has become, in the words of U.S. commentators, a “tariff terrorist”: a leader who uses the threat of economic destruction not as negotiation, but as spectacle.

Since his re-election, Trump has turned tariffs into both weapon and theatre — a way to dominate China through trade. It plays well with his base, but beneath the showmanship lies a deep flaw: the United States no longer has the industrial base to sustain a real trade war.

No area shows this imbalance more clearly than rare earths — the backbone of modern defense, energy, and technology. China now controls 70–80 percent of global refining capacity, the result of decades of state-backed investment since Deng Xiaoping declared, “The Middle East has oil; China has rare earths.” The United States, by contrast, has neither the facilities nor the price competitiveness to challenge that monopoly. Its only significant mine, Mountain Pass in California, still sends most of its ore to China for processing. Even with billions in subsidies, rebuilding a full rare-earth industrial base would take years — and the political will simply isn’t there.

Trump’s tariffs thus expose a fundamental contradiction: he is punishing the very country America depends on for materials critical to its military and technology sectors. It is a trade war fought without leverage.

As Trump’s threats echo across markets, China remains steady. The government’s silence is not weakness but confidence — a sign that Beijing understands it can afford to wait. Economic nationalism may win applause in Washington, but China’s message is clear: “以不变应万变” — Stay steady to navigate all changes.

本文系观察者网独家稿件，文章内容纯属作者个人观点，不代表平台观点，未经授权，不得转载，否则将追究法律责任。关注观察者网微信guanchacn，每日阅读趣味文章。